We have made it our practice to begin each year with an update of our 10-year stock and bond market return forecasts. We undertake this exercise to provide reasonable expectations for financial planning and asset allocation decisions. This past year we put considerable effort into refining our forecasting models while also broadening our coverage of asset classes.
我对我们的新型号很满意, we realize that no one knows the future and that no model can predict future market returns with perfect accuracy. 但以历史为鉴, 我们相信这是可能的, 如果不完美, 长期回报预测. 比预测准确的回报更重要, 然而, 预测不同资产类别的相对回报. 这是做出良好资产配置决策的关键.
Our asset class forecast models do not try to predict the economy, 政治, 或者可能影响回报的重大事件. As we have learned, the more predictions required, the more opportunity for errors. 而, we take data that are already known and apply regression-to-the-mean calculations to arrive at our results. 例如, our stock market forecasts take the past 20 years of corporate earnings and project that those earnings will follow a similar trend forward for the next 10 years. We combine this calculation with an estimate of the stock market’s equilibrium valuation, based both on median historical valuations and projected interest-rate levels, 得出我们的总回报预测. This method has provided reasonable and directionally useful results historically.
在看我们预计的10年回报率之前, let’s first review some of the history affecting our projections by examining returns from stock and bond markets over the past 10 years. 用S来测量&美国标准普尔500指数.S. stock market just completed its best 10-year period since 2000 and its seventh highest since the index’s inception in 1957.1 这一时期的年化总回报率为16%.5%, well above the median 10-year annualized return of 9.6%. 美国.S. 根据彭博社(Bloomberg)的数据，美国的债券市场.S. 综合债券指数表现不佳. 其10年年化总回报率仅为2%.9%，远低于10年回报率的中位数7%.2% and the lowest return since the index’s inception in 1976.
The low and falling interest rates that suppressed bond returns over the past ten years contributed to stock returns by lifting valuations during the period. 这对股票有正规的大网赌网站吗者来说是件好事. But unfortunately, that comes with a cost of lower return projections going forward.
The chart above shows our 10-year return forecasts for various classes of stocks, 债券, 另类资产. For each asset class we provide a range of outcomes centered around the mean return forecasted by our models. Note that the size of the ranges varies by asset class based on historical volatility and other factors. 例如，美国股市的估值.S. small cap stocks have historically been more volatile than those of U.S. large cap stocks, causing our return range to be wider.
Critical to using these forecasts for planning and setting asset allocation policies is knowing not only the mean return forecast but also the size of the bands. These bands are similar to what scientists call uncertainty intervals. Assets classes with less volatile valuation changes have smaller bands, 或者更大的确定性, than those that have exhibited more volatile valuation changes. 正因为如此, it is possible for one asset class to have a higher forecasted mean return than another, 然而，在其波段的低端，回报率较小. 因此, simply allocating your portfolio to the asset class with the highest forecasted mean return may not result in the best outcome.
For readers concerned about our low forecasts for some asset classes, we offer one important reminder: all forecasts are based on one point in time and do not account for the likelihood of economic recession or market downturns over the forecast period. 而不愉快, these events are likely to be part of the path to 10-year returns and will offer better starting points that could produce higher market returns. 一个精心制作的, strategic investment plan—combined with disciplined portfolio rebalancing—is critical to seizing such opportunities.
1 Based on 10-year periods beginning at the start of each calendar year.
The following indexes are used in our forecasting models to represent various asset classes: S&标准普尔500指数.S. large cap stocks; Rus出售 1000 Growth Index, U.S. large cap value stocks; Rus出售 1000 Value Index, U.S. large cap growth stocks; S&美国p600中型股指数.S. 中盘股; S&美国p400小型股指数.S. small cap stocks; MSCI ACWI ex-US, World ex-U.S. stocks; Bloomberg U.S. 美国债券综合指数.S. 应税债券，彭博美国.S. 美国高收益债券指数.S. high yield corporate 债券; Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, Liquid Alternatives.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this material should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, 出售, 或者持有任何特定的证券. This report includes candid statements and observations regarding investment strategies, 个别证券, and economic and market conditions; 然而, 不能保证这些陈述, 意见, 否则预测将被证明是正确的. Actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The views and strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers and are subject to change without notice. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, 截至本报告发布之日，哪些是当前的. The information is not intended to provide and should not be relied on for accounting, 法律, 以及税务建议或有正规的大网赌网站吗建议. Investing in stocks involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.