J. 安德鲁Concannon





The new year has delivered a sharp jump in volatility across stock, bond, 和 commodities markets. Chart 1, for example, shows that daily price volatility for the S&今年迄今为止,标准普尔500指数较去年上涨了近一倍. The blame for this instability lies not with one single item but rather with many. 就在今年第一季度, 有正规的大网赌网站吗者面临着又一次新冠肺炎疫情激增, 通货膨胀, 持续的供应链瓶颈, 美联储转向加息, 和, 可悲的是, a military war in Ukraine that has led to an economic war against its Russian aggressor.



这些问题本身都值得关注. Together, they greatly amplify the markets’ typical state of uncertainty. 在本期的《网赌正规平台网址》中, 我将讨论其中几个不利因素, 原因的本质, 以及市场如何告诉我们未来的道路.

通货膨胀 & 供应链的瓶颈

通过全球化和技术的结合, humans can now produce surpluses of nearly all necessary goods—that is, 直到供应链被打乱. Over the past two years, the p和emic caused tremendous shocks to supply chains worldwide. 与此同时, central banks across the globe rapidly exp和ed money supply to pay for economic stimulus plans. As a result, more money has chased fewer goods, leaving us with 通货膨胀.


现在世界上最大的中央银行,美国央行.S. Federal Reserve, is reversing course with plans to begin reducing money supply this year. 那, combined with efforts throughout the world to mend supply chains, 会导致明年通货膨胀率下降吗. The caveat is that the war in Ukraine 和 sanctions on Russia will impose new obstacles for supply chains, 从而打断但不停止进程.


3月16日th, the Federal Reserve announced a quarter-point increase to the federal funds rate along with its intention to add six more quarter-point increases this year. The bond market was out in front of that announcement having raised the yield on 2-year U.S. 从0开始的国库券.从9月份的2%到1%.在宣布之前的9%. 在同一时期,10年期的美国国债.S. 美国国债收益率从1.3% to 2.2%. Further hawkish talk by Federal Reserve officials pushed both 2-year 和 10-year yields to 2.截至3月底,这一比例为3%.


债券收益率的突然上升, 以及美联储3月份的声明, 可能会让有正规的大网赌网站吗者想知道收益率还能走多高. Although yields are still low by historical st和ards, the relative 2 和 10-year U.S. 美国国债收益率水平表明,我们可能正接近顶部. Looking at bond yields dating back to 1978 reveals that when 2-year yields climbed above 10-year yields, 称为收益率曲线反转, 12 months later the 10-year bond’s yield was either lower or just slightly higher in seven out of eight occurrences.


如图2所示, the current yield curve is nearly flat for bonds with maturities of two years or longer. This is the market’s way of signaling that further rate increases, 除了那些已经公布的, would likely slow the economy to such an extent that the Federal Reserve would reverse course.




Should the bond market be correct in its signaling about the future direction of yields, 这对股价是有利的. 这是因为较长的期限(i.e., 10-year) bond yields 和 earnings growth are the two most important determinants for stock prices over longer time frames. Earnings growth determines the direction of stock prices while bond yields affect the valuation investors assign to those earnings. 较低的债券收益率导致较高的估值,反之亦然. Therefore, signs of a peak in 10-year bond yields should be interpreted positively.


The risk is that bond yields peak due to an economic slowdown or recession that causes corporate earnings to decline. 预期收益, 然而, 目前是阳性的, 预计美国企业不仅将获得更高的收益.S. companies this year but also rising estimates since the start of the year.1 The combination of growing earnings 和 a near-term peak in longer-maturity bond yields will be constructive for stock prices should it hold true.


笼罩在市场上空的一大阴云是乌克兰战争. While markets will favor any positive resolution 和 react negatively to any escalation, 有正规的大网赌网站吗者对结果缺乏确定性. (Hopefully by the time you read this a resolution will have been reached.) We expect markets to remain hyper-sensitive to headlines 和 pray for the best outcome for those affected by this war.


Another cloud that is beginning to garner attention is the risk of recession. 那 risk rises with the Federal Reserve’s steps to tame inflation. 美联储, 当然, will seek to avoid causing a recession; 然而, its record at orchestrating soft l和ings is less than stellar. Some forecasters will point to a 2-to-10-year bond-yield inversion as proof of a pending recession. 然而, it’s important to remember that while each of the last six recessions were preceded by such an inversion, 并不是所有的反转都伴随着经济衰退.


有正规的大网赌网站吗ors are paid a premium for navigating uncertain 和 volatile times. 那 is why higher-risk asset classes provide greater long-term returns than lower-risk asset classes. The keys to collecting that premium are investing long-term 和 following a well-designed plan—two things we emphasize at Goelzer 有正规的大网赌网站吗管理.



1 FactSet年代&截至2022年3月31日的标普500指数收益预期


DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this piece should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, 出售或持有任何特定证券. This report includes c和id statements 和 observations regarding investment strategies, 个别证券, 和 economic 和 market conditions; 然而, 不能保证这些陈述, 意见, 否则预测将被证明是正确的. Actual results may differ materially from those we anticipate. The views 和 strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers 和 are subject to change without notice. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, 截至本报告发布之日,哪些是当前的. The information is not intended to provide 和 should not be relied on for accounting, 法律, 以及税务建议或有正规的大网赌网站吗建议. 有正规的大网赌网站吗ing in stocks involves risk, including loss of principal. 过去的表现不能保证未来的结果.


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