J. Andrew Concannon

Chief Investment Officer

The Role of Stocks in Meeting Your Income Needs

November 2015


许多有正规的大网赌网站吗者关心的是如何确保可靠和不断增长的收入流. At Goelzer Investment Management, we believe the key to meeting your income needs, now and in the future, 以收益为导向的股票有正规的大网赌网站吗组合是你有正规的大网赌网站吗策略的核心要素吗.


This may sound strange, for conventional wisdom dictates that you should invest in bonds for income and stocks for capital appreciation. Each day the financial media reinforces this view, with daily updates of stock prices, index levels, 以及很少或根本没有提到股息的利率. 新闻报道中的偏见是可以理解的,因为股息的变化没有那么剧烈, 而价格和利率可以随时变化,创造出更令人兴奋的头条新闻.


During the bull market of the 1990s, two structural factors, 两者都被减少或消除了, 这两者结合起来,使人们更加关注股价而不是股息. First, the broad adoption of employee stock option programs during the 1990s provided those who participated, including senior-level corporate decision makers, 因为股价上涨而获得奖励,同时因为分红而含蓄地惩罚他们. This factor has since diminished. 现在的会计规则要求将员工股票期权的费用计算在内, 这降低了它们对发行公司的吸引力.


Second, a combination of federal tax laws changes that took effect in 1997 lowered tax rates on capital gains relative to dividends.1 This led investors to favor price increases over dividends as the preferred form of stock returns. 2003年5月实施的税法改革使竞争环境变得公平, however, by reducing the tax rate on qualifying dividends to 15%—the same as the tax rate on long-term capital gains. 2013年进一步的税收变动使资本利得和股息的税率保持相等, 然而,对于收入最高的人群,这两项税率都提高到了20%.2



Despite conventional wisdom, history shows a diversified portfolio of stocks can provide a more reliable stream of income with greater protection from inflation than bonds and other fixed income securities. To illustrate this fact, 我们计算了1月1日有正规的大网赌网站吗100美元的收益, 1975 in the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) and the income available from a 3-month U.S. Treasury Bill (T-Bill) and a 5-year U.S. Treasury Note (T-Note). In our analysis, 我们没有再有正规的大网赌网站吗股息或利息支付, because we were interested in learning what occurred if you spent the income generated by your portfolio, much as a typical retiree might. We also did not adjust for inflation. 我们的研究结果如图1所示.


如图所示,有正规的大网赌网站吗选择对收入水平的影响是巨大的. 2014年底,在初始有正规的大网赌网站吗40年后,你从S&P 500将是1975年的11倍多. This is despite the S&2009年是该公司58年历史上股息降幅最大的一年. What is shocking is that investors relying on T-Bills saw their incomes drop to zero in recent years, 而自我们的研究开始以来,T-Note的收入下降了80%以上.


1 The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 reduced the maximum federal tax rate on long-term capital gains to 20% while maintaining the maximum rate of 39.6% on dividends.

2 The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which was enacted in January 2013, 此外,还引入了针对最高收入税等级的净有正规的大网赌网站吗所得税. This amounts to 3.对资本利得、利息、股息和其他有正规的大网赌网站吗收入征收8%的附加税.



在这40年里,只有3年的收入来自于S&P 500 decreased (2000, 2001, 2009), 而国库券和国库券分别有24年和22年的下跌. 为有正规的大网赌网站吗者寻求可靠和不断增长的收入, 股票的表现明显好于质量最高的债券.



Although the S&P 500提供了比国库券和国库券更可靠的收入流, the lack of focus on dividends makes the index a sub-optimal portfolio for those seeking income. 事实上,截至2015年1月,500只股票中有79只没有派发股息.3 These non-dividend paying stocks do not help income-oriented investors achieve their goals. 一个明确界定的以收入为导向的有正规的大网赌网站吗组合将很好地排除它们. 此外,构成S&500英镑有时会减少提供给有正规的大网赌网站吗者的股息收入. For example, the number of non-dividend paying stocks within the index increased from 64 companies to 149 during the period of 1994 to 2004.4 这些类型的不利收入变化并不是S&P 500.


Today, most professionally managed stock portfolios, mutual funds, and indices are constructed with little concern for dividends or changes in the level of dividend income provided to investors.


以获取收益为导向的股票有正规的大网赌网站吗组合的好处, an investor must adopt a more patient attitude towards the short-term fluctuations in equity prices. 收益型有正规的大网赌网站吗者的目标是多年来可靠和不断增长的收入, not fast profit from buying and selling stocks. Therefore, the investor should focus on the dividends paid by the stock portfolio along with the ability of the underlying companies to maintain and grow them. 当需要卖出股票时,价格变动变得更加相关, 但对价格的持续关注会导致不必要的兴奋或绝望. The focus on short-term price changes, when negative, 会导致不必要的担忧和糟糕的出售决定. 专注于积极的短期价格变化也可能是有害的, 导致过度自信和糟糕的购买决定. Focusing on growing income and preserving capital, 同时允许长期资本增值的机会, 应该提供收益导向型有正规的大网赌网站吗者想要的一致性.


3 Standard & Poor’s

4 Standard & Poor’s


Goelzer’s Rising Dividends Portfolio

Since 2005, Goelzer has managed an income-orientedstock portfolio designed to provide the benefits of a rising income stream coupled with the opportunity for capital appreciation. The portfolio also avoids the potential reduction in current income that results from the inclusion of non-dividend paying stocks. The Goelzer Rising Dividends Portfolio has been designed as a broadly diversified portfolio that includes well-researched companies from each of the major industry sectors. These companies deliver strong cash flow in excess of the amount needed to fund and grow their businesses. Through their history, 他们用多余的现金定期向股东支付不断增长的股息. From this group we purchase the most attractively priced stocks to construct the Goelzer Rising Dividends Portfolio. The result is a well-diversified portfolio with a significantly higher dividend yield than the overall market, 由我们的研究表明拥有强劲资产负债表的公司组成, growing cash flow, and a demonstrated commitment to paying dividends.


你不需要牺牲总回报来实现你的收入目标. In a study conducted by Dr. Jeremy J. Seigel, 宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院金融学教授, the stocks that made up the S&P 500 during the period of 1957 to 2003 were sorted into quintiles based upon their dividend yield. 研究显示,构成第一个五分位数i的股票.e., those stocks with the highest dividend yields—produced an average annual rate of return of 14.在此期间为27%,而年回报率为11.18% for the S&P 500 as a whole. Meanwhile, the stocks that made up the fifth quintile—those with the lowest or no dividend yield—provided an annual rate of return of 9.50%.5 Another study conducted by Standard & Poor’s focused on creating a portfolio that included only those stocks within the Standard & 连续25年增加股息的普尔500指数. The study concluded that over the fifteen year period this portfolio provided an annual rate of return of 13.45% versus 11.00% for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as a whole6.


We believe the Goelzer Rising Dividends Portfolio can be an important core component of your income-oriented investment plan. This does not, however, suggest the exclusion of bonds and other fixed-income securities as another key component of a properly diversified portfolio. 尽管债券和其他固定收益证券经历了收入波动, as illustrated above, the benefits of capital preservation and liquidity make them an important component of an income oriented portfolio. The inclusion of high-quality, short-to-intermediate maturity fixed-income securities can provide a source of liquidity during those times when stock prices have declined, thereby allowing you to leave your stock portfolio intact to participate in future price and dividend increases. At Goelzer we provide professional management of both taxable and tax-exempt bond and fixed income securities portfolios to complement your stock portfolio.


In addition, Goelzer has developed a non-traditional investment strategy to provide further diversification beyond stocks and bonds. This strategy includes investments with low to moderate correlation to stocks and bonds while avoiding the pitfalls of many nontraditional investments, namely high fees, lack of liquidity, poor transparency, 以及杠杆导致的资本损失风险增加.


We believe an income-focused stock portfolio with the added diversification of bonds and nontraditional investments is a proven strategy for securing and growing your income. By implementing this strategy, 我们经验丰富的有正规的大网赌网站吗专业团队可以帮助您实现您的收入目标.


5 Jeremy J. Siegel. The Future for Investors. 2005

6 Standard & Poor’s


The information provided in this material should not be considered as a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security. 本报告包括有关有正规的大网赌网站吗战略的坦率陈述和意见, individual securities, and economic and market conditions; however, there is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts will prove to be correct. 实际的结果可能与我们预期的有很大的不同. The views and strategies described in the piece may not be suitable to all readers and are subject to change without notice. 你不应该过分依赖前瞻性的陈述, which are current as of the date of this report. 这些信息不是用来提供的,也不应该作为会计依据, legal, and tax advice or investment recommendations. 有正规的大网赌网站吗股票是有风险的,包括损失本金. 过去的表现并不能保证未来的结果.